– By GF Value
The stock of Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $55.46 per share and the market cap of $5.9 billion, Louisiana-Pacific stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Louisiana-Pacific is shown in the chart below.
Because Louisiana-Pacific is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 10% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 2.48% annually over the next three to five years.
Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company’s financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Louisiana-Pacific has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.38, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Construction industry. The overall financial strength of Louisiana-Pacific is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Louisiana-Pacific is fair. This is the debt and cash of Louisiana-Pacific over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Louisiana-Pacific has been profitable 6 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $2.8 billion and earnings of $4.49 a share. Its operating margin of 23.39% better than 94% of the companies in Construction industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Louisiana-Pacific’s profitability as fair. This is the revenue and net income of Louisiana-Pacific over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Louisiana-Pacific is 10%, which ranks better than 73% of the companies in Construction industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 14.5%, which ranks better than 71% of the companies in Construction industry.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Louisiana-Pacific’s return on invested capital is 38.45, and its cost of capital is 11.97. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Louisiana-Pacific is shown below:
To conclude, the stock of Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks better than 71% of the companies in Construction industry. To learn more about Louisiana-Pacific stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.