(Bloomberg) — U.S. equity futures rose ahead of data expected to show the biggest increase in jobs in five months. Most other markets were closed for Good Friday.
The labor report for March has the potential to roil the bond market when trading will be thin during a holiday-shortened session. Treasuries will be open for a half-day session, while the New York Stock Exchange is closed today.
The median economist estimate points to 650,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, which would indicate that the economy is powering ahead as more people get vaccinated. That could push benchmark 10-year yields back toward a recent one-year peak of 1.77%.
A JPMorgan analysis of bond-market trading since 2007 found that the Treasury 10-year note was about two times more volatile following jobs data releases on Good Friday than normal. On jobs-report days with 2 p.m. early closes, like before July 4, the market tends to be three times more volatile than a full session.
“The vaccination program is continuing apace across the U.S. along with a slowdown in the rise in virus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “There are certainly plenty of reasons to be optimistic about today’s payrolls number.”
Investors are also cheering other signs of strength in the U.S. economy. Manufacturing growth roared ahead in March and President Joe Biden’s plan to rebuild infrastructure strengthens the outlook, though questions remain about how much of it can actually be delivered.
Elsewhere, stocks in Japan and South Korea advanced, helped by chipmakers. Biden’s top national security and economic advisers plan to meet April 12 with semiconductor and auto companies to discuss the global shortage of microprocessors, according to people familiar with the matter.
On Thursday, the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed above 4,000 for the first time. Oil climbed after the OPEC+ alliance agreed to increase production gradually over the next three months.
Some key events to watch this week:
U.S. employment report for March on Friday.Good Friday starts the Easter weekend in countries including the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Australia and Canada.
These are some of the main moves in financial markets:
S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% as of 10:22 a.m. in London. The S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% Thursday.Japan’s Topix index climbed 0.7%.South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.9%.China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.3%.
The yen climbed 0.1% to 110.49 per dollar.The offshore yuan added 0.1% to 6.5679 per dollar.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% Thursday.The euro traded little changed at $1.1775.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell seven basis points to 1.67% on Thursday.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.9% to $61.45 a barrel on Thursday.Gold was at $1,732.18 an ounce.
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