– By GF Value
The stock of Cyanotech (NAS:CYAN, 30-year Financials) is believed to be modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $3.38 per share and the market cap of $20.6 million, Cyanotech stock is believed to be modestly overvalued. GF Value for Cyanotech is shown in the chart below.
Because Cyanotech is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth.
Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company’s financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company’s financial strength. Cyanotech has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.29, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Cyanotech’s financial strength as 5 out of 10, suggesting fair balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Cyanotech over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Cyanotech has been profitable 5 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $31.5 million and earnings of $0.2 a share. Its operating margin of 1.07% worse than 72% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Cyanotech’s profitability as poor. This is the revenue and net income of Cyanotech over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company’s stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Cyanotech is -1.9%, which ranks worse than 69% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 33.9%, which ranks better than 88% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Cyanotech’s return on invested capital is 1.30, and its cost of capital is 5.19. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Cyanotech is shown below:
In short, The stock of Cyanotech (NAS:CYAN, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being modestly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is fair and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks better than 88% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. To learn more about Cyanotech stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.