– By GF Value
The stock of Cameco (NYSE:CCJ, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $17.25 per share and the market cap of $6.9 billion, Cameco stock shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Cameco is shown in the chart below.
Because Cameco is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company’s financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company’s financial strength. Cameco has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.92, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Other Energy Sources. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Cameco’s financial strength as 5 out of 10, suggesting fair balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Cameco over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Cameco has been profitable 7 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $1.4 billion and loss of $0.081 a share. Its operating margin is -2.24%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Other Energy Sources. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Cameco at 5 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Cameco over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Cameco is -5.9%, which ranks worse than 72% of the companies in the industry of Other Energy Sources. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 1.3%, which ranks worse than 67% of the companies in the industry of Other Energy Sources.
Another way to evaluate a company’s profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, Cameco’s ROIC was -0.86, while its WACC came in at 6.16. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Cameco is shown below:
In short, The stock of Cameco (NYSE:CCJ, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 67% of the companies in the industry of Other Energy Sources. To learn more about Cameco stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.