The S&P 500 and the Dow both ripped to new records Monday, while the Nasdaq continued its recent run to inch within roughly 3.5% of its mid-February highs on the second trading day of the second quarter. All three major indexes did pullback slightly on Tuesday, but the bullish outlook remains.
Tech stocks have fought their way back since the Nasdaq fell into a correction on March 8, after a month of profit-taking and selling based on inflation worries. Wall Street has returned to hard hit high-flyers such as Tesla and Apple over the past month, even as the cyclical trade, from energy to finance, continues.
The inflation worries are still there as well. Luckily for stock investors, the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains ultra-low by historical standards, likely extending there is no alternative investing. Let’s also not forget about the constantly-improving earnings outlook.
Plus, the likelihood of 6% or higher U.S. GDP growth in 2021, driven by a natural economic comeback, alongside the coronavirus vaccine rollout, and the continued injection of money into the economy, means it’s time to add to your portfolio.
One way to find potential winners is to search for companies that have landed new analyst coverage recently. And the reasoning is pretty straightforward…
New Analyst Coverage
Broker recommendations play their part no matter how investors feel about them. And we seemingly all take a look no matter what. Individual investors, large institutional portfolio managers, and everyone in between are likely pleased to see one of their stocks get an upgraded rating or a new analyst cover the company.
Investor interest can generate more analyst coverage. This helps explain why analysts jump on young, much-hyped and talked about tech companies. Then, as new coverage is initiated, the company and the stock become more visible, which in turn often leads to more demand potential and therefore the possibility of higher prices.
Plus, analysts almost always initiate coverage with a positive recommendation. And the logic follows because why spend all the time and write a research report on a company not widely tracked only to say it’s not good?
When it comes to companies with little to no analyst coverage, one new recommendation can sometimes give portfolio managers the validation they need to build a position. And the more money they can invest, the more they can potentially influence prices.
The best way to use this information is to search for companies with analyst coverage that has increased over the last 4 weeks. We just look at the number of analyst recommendations today and compare it to the number of analyst recommendations 4 weeks ago.
The rule of thumb here is that an increase in coverage leans bullish and a decrease signals bearish behavior. It is also worth pointing out that, in general, the change in the average broker recommendation is a better indicator than the actual recommendation itself.
On top of that, it is typically more bullish if the increase went from none to one or if the coverage was minimal to begin with. (As the number of analysts climbs the addition of new coverage isn’t earth-shattering.) In the end, increased coverage is still better than decreased coverage, unless the coverage is heading in the wrong direction.
Now let’s try this screen…
• Number of Broker Ratings now greater than the Number of Broker Ratings four weeks ago
(This shows stocks where new coverage has recently been added.)
• Average Broker Rating less than Average Broker Rating four weeks ago
(By ‘less than’, we mean ‘better than’ four weeks ago.)
• Prices greater than or equal to 5
(We’re applying all of the above parameters to stocks above $5 a share since many money managers won’t even look at stocks under $5)
• Average Daily Volume greater than or equal to 100,000 shares
(If there’s not enough volume, even individual investors won’t want it).
Here are three of the roughly 20 stocks that came through the screen this week…
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) – (from 2 analysts four weeks ago to 3)
MP Materials Corp. (MP) – (from 2 analysts four weeks ago to 5)
Avid Bioservices, Inc. (CDMO) – (from 2 analysts four weeks ago to 3)
Many screeners won’t let you search for the number of analysts covering a stock, let alone comparing the amount of coverage they had weeks or even months ago. But you can with the Research Wizard. And you can backtest it all. Find out how to pick the right stocks right now by taking a free trial to the Research Wizard stock picking and backtesting program.
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Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.
Disclosure: Performance information for Zacks’ portfolios and strategies are available at: https://www.zacks.com/performance.
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