Shares of Future FinTech Group (NASDAQ:FTFT) were up 15.7% in March, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The stock’s upward movements largely mirrored that of popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
Future FinTech describes itself as “a leading blockchain e-commerce company and a service provider for financial technology.” Because of its stated association with blockchain technologies and its recent announcements that it’s mining Bitcoin, traders tend to bid this stock up when the price of Bitcoin is rising. Granted, the company did make announcements during March. But, looking at a chart, these announcements didn’t move the needle as much as the price movements of Bitcoin.
We don’t have a lot of insight into Future FinTech’s current financials. On March 31, the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), saying its financial results for 2020 are going to be filed late. However, it didn’t make any money from Bitcoin as of its most recent filing for the period ending in September. And it likely hasn’t made much (or any) from Bitcoin since then.
Therefore, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for Future FinTech stock to track with Bitcoin. But the prevailing narrative right now is that whatever is good for Bitcoin is good for blockchain technologies and therefore good for Future FinTech. And as Morgan Housel says in his book The Psychology of Money, “Stories are, by far, the most powerful force in the economy.” It’s why Future FinTech stock was up in March.
Investing in a story can work in the short term, and Future FinTech is a good example of this. However, it’s impossible to predict whether the narrative will someday change. For that reason, I’d advocate for playing a different game: buy-and-hold investing for the long term. But this game is different from trading stocks with a short time horizon. Rather than buying into a narrative, we’re looking at economic trends and business fundamentals.
Examining Future FinTech stock through this long-term lens paints a cautious picture: For 2020 the company expects to report revenue of just $370,000 — down 59% year over year. Furthermore, it expects to report an operating loss of $51 million. These steep losses are why the company continues to raise funds by offering stock and diluting current shareholder value.
As long as that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine Future FinTech stock beating the market over the long haul.
This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.