– By GF Value
The stock of CNH Industrial NV (NYSE:CNHI, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $15.73 per share and the market cap of $21.3 billion, CNH Industrial NV stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for CNH Industrial NV is shown in the chart below.
Because CNH Industrial NV is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which is estimated to grow 0.28% annually over the next three to five years.
Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company’s financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. CNH Industrial NV has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.33, which which ranks worse than 70% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. The overall financial strength of CNH Industrial NV is 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of CNH Industrial NV is poor. This is the debt and cash of CNH Industrial NV over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. CNH Industrial NV has been profitable 8 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $26 billion and loss of $0.37 a share. Its operating margin of 6.22% in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. Overall, GuruFocus ranks CNH Industrial NV’s profitability as fair. This is the revenue and net income of CNH Industrial NV over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of CNH Industrial NV is -1.7%, which ranks worse than 69% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -22.7%, which ranks worse than 89% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, CNH Industrial NV’s return on invested capital is 4.33, and its cost of capital is 6.69. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of CNH Industrial NV is shown below:
In conclusion, The stock of CNH Industrial NV (NYSE:CNHI, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 89% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. To learn more about CNH Industrial NV stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.