Dish Network stock (NASDAQ: DISH) has increased 19% in the last six months. The rally was driven by the company posting better than expected results in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2020, benefiting from Boost Mobile and Ting Mobile acquisitions. The gradual opening up of the economy is expected to lead the recovery in consumer spending in the coming quarters. This will drive the commercial/industrial customers to come back to its fold as the current crisis gradually abates. Also, the announcement that Dish Network DISH has decided to partner with cloud computing giant Amazon AMZN Web Service to sell 5G wireless services to businesses has given a boost to the stock price. Dish Network plans to connect its 5G network hardware and management software through AWS – the biggest computing service provider. It is also expected that Dish will prioritize its focus on enterprise before consumer retail wireless. This is likely to help Dish tap a wide market in association with Amazon’s AWS as 5G enterprise applications are expected to come up in smart factories, drones, autonomous vehicles, remote health care services, and many more areas. Dish plans to launch 5G wireless services in its first market – Las Vegas – in the latter half of 2021. As the company continues on its track of 5G expansion, revenue growth is set to improve in 2021 and 2022 which has led to the recent rally.
But will DISH stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last ten years, returns for DISH stock average more than 10% in the next six-month (126 trading days) period after experiencing a 19% rise over the previous six-month (126 trading days) period. The stock is likely to outperform the S&P500 over the next six months, with an expected return which would be more than 2% higher compared to the S&P500.
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding DISH stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning to test DISH stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF DISH stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, DISH stock moves an average of 2.6 percent, which implies a return which is 0.5% higher than that of the S&P500.
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More importantly, there is 61% probability of a positive return over the next 21 trading days and 53% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over five trading days.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of DISH Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for DISH Network stock higher after a drop?
Consider two situations,
Case 1: DISH Network stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: DISH Network stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for DISH Network stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
DISH stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 2.6% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.5% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how DISH Network stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold DISH Network stock, the expectation is over time the near term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For DISH stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is generally lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although DISH stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
DISH’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for DISH Network stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
5G wireless technology is a hot trend. Which stocks should you pick? Check out our theme on 5G Stocks for details.